Analysis | Can We Undo Trump鈥檚 Environmental Damage?

American climate policy can be salvaged, but environmentalists say action has to be swift and sweeping.

When he talks about the Trump administration, David Doniger likes to say: 鈥淚magine where we鈥檇 be if they knew what they were doing.鈥� The climate lawyer and senior adviser to the NRDC Action Fund spends his days defending the environment from the U.S. government, and for the past three and a half years, that鈥檚 meant a front-row seat to the Trump administration鈥檚 relentless attacks on any regulation that鈥檚 meant to slow the .

But it鈥檚 also been a window into the hasty, sloppy, and legally dubious ways that they鈥檝e gone about it. 鈥淥ne of the hallmarks of this administration is how incompetently they鈥檙e doing this,鈥� says Doniger. 鈥淚t shows up in how slowly they鈥檝e been able to work, and how flimsy their legal rationales are.鈥� Almost all of Trump鈥檚 attempts at deregulation鈥攕ome 100 rules that he鈥檚 tried to eliminate or weaken鈥攁re being challenged in court, and environmentalists are steadily winning. According to the at New York University, the Trump administration has lost 69 of the 83 legal challenges it鈥檚 faced in its deregulatory blitz.

鈥淲e were saved by their incompetence,鈥� says Andrew Wetzler, from the NRDC Action Fund, mainly by their failure to follow basic rule-making procedures. They rushed through the process, often shortening or entirely skipping over the required 60 days for public comment, which provided a clear opening for their rule changes to be challenged in court. The administration鈥檚 ineptitude has given environmentalists hope that if Trump loses the election, the policy impact of his unrelenting pro-fossil fuel agenda could ultimately be short-lived. 鈥淚f he鈥檚 a one-term wonder,鈥� says Doniger, 鈥渢he biggest consequence of the Trump administration may just turn out to be lost time.鈥�

But time, at this hour of the climate fight, might be our most precious resource. As we stumble ever closer to the , the range of meaningful action we could take narrows. There is now believed to be more carbon dioxide in the air than any time in the past 3 million years. Our oceans are on track by the end of this century to become more acidic than they鈥檝e been in some 15 million years鈥攚hen they were enduring a major extinction event. Those oceans are also rising steadily enough to threaten the homes of 150 million people in the next three decades. 鈥淲e lost years at a critical time,鈥� says Wetzler. 鈥淲e鈥檙e on the precipice of a number of climate and biological tipping points.鈥� And, he says, we won鈥檛 fully understand the impact of that loss for years.

If Biden wins in November, environmentalists say, his administration would have a slim window of opportunity to get our agencies back on track to meet the enormity of the climate crisis. 鈥淚t means being aggressive from day one,鈥� says Brett Hartl from the Center for Biological Diversity Action Fund. 鈥淎nd not futzing around鈥攌nowing what you鈥檙e going to do and implementing it immediately.鈥�

Making up for the lost time won鈥檛 be easy. Despite his slap-dash approach, Trump still managed to scramble the trajectory of American climate policy, creating a tangle of legal fights that will have to be cleared up for U.S. climate policy to move forward. And he left almost no part of our environmental regulatory structure untouched鈥攇reenlighting fossil fuel infrastructure like the Dakota Access and Keystone XL Pipelines, setting us back on emission-reduction goals by reversing the Clean Power Plan and higher fuel-efficiency standards, and gutting the federal agencies that should be at the helm of our climate response.

Time, at this hour of the climate fight, might be our most precious resource.

So how difficult will it be to unscramble this mess? It would have to happen in three parts, environmentalists say, and all three would have to start on day one. First, Biden would have a powerful arsenal of executive tools available to him鈥攊f he chooses to use them. A groups has already assembled a plan for how he could effectively jumpstart our fight against the climate crisis using executive powers, which would avoid both going through Congress and the lengthy federal rule-making process.

Using executive power, Biden could declare a national climate emergency. It wouldn鈥檛 just send an important message to Americans鈥攁nd the rest of the world鈥攖hat we鈥檙e taking the climate crisis seriously; it would give the administration the power to mobilize the government on a massive scale, such as ordering the secretary of defense to redirect military spending toward the rapid development of clean energy.

Biden could also immediately order federal agencies to reverse the climate rollbacks Trump introduced through executive order鈥攕uch as allowing oil and gas companies to side-step state approval鈥攁nd start issuing his own. Most urgently, Biden would have the power to keep more fossil fuels in the ground: He could direct the secretary of the interior to halt oil-and-gas leasing and fracking on federal lands, reinstitute the ban on exporting crude oil, and order all federal agencies to deny permits for new fossil fuel infrastructure, such as pipelines, storage facilities, and refineries.

Using executive power, Biden could declare a national climate emergency.

He鈥檇 also be able to change the ways that money moves through the energy sector. He could prohibit the U.S. government from financing fossil fuel programs overseas and end all Department of Energy loans for fossil fuels stateside, while also requiring the Federal Reserve to manage climate risks鈥攆orcing it to acknowledge the current and future impact of on our economy.

Many of these tools were already available in the Obama era, but the administration chose not to use them. For example, 鈥渢he Clean Air Act is actually quite clear that you have the authority to set national ambient air quality standards,鈥� says Hartl. 鈥淚t would have been incredibly bold, and it actually wouldn鈥檛 have had the problems that the Clean Power Plan had. They could have really moved the needle on greenhouse gases in a very, very powerful way.鈥� But, Hartl says, the Obama administration shied away from these kinds of actions for fear of political consequences.

Biden would face a different national landscape. At the beginning of this year, , up from only 30% at the beginning of Obama鈥檚 first term. , likely Democratic voters ranked climate change as the most important issue to them in this election, and Data for Progress, a progressive think tank, has found that talking about climate change could actually help persuade voters who are on the fence to vote for a Democrat. All of this is to say, a Biden administration could have an unprecedented political mandate to take action on the climate crisis.

In addition to issuing executive orders, beginning on day one, Biden would also need to start the process of unwinding the deregulation efforts that Trump carried out through the federal rule-making process鈥攍ike and fuel-emissions standards鈥攁nd writing new ones to take their place. Environmentalists are confident that a new administration could systematically undo each rollback, but that process could take two years, according to Hartl.

The climate movement has never been more clear on what it is fighting for and what it needs to do.

And the Biden administration would need to learn from Trump鈥檚 mistakes. Legal challenges from the industries that these regulations impact鈥攖he American Petroleum Institute, the National Mining Association鈥攁re inevitable, 鈥渟o you have to go in and be prepared to defend it the first time,鈥� says Hartl. That means following the process to the letter: establishing rules with legal backing from legislation such as the Clean Air and Clean Water acts; opening up the rule to public comment; and then presenting a final rule that can stand up in court. Unlike Trump鈥檚 deregulation efforts, which were fighting against decades of environmental legislation, the law would be on Biden鈥檚 side. 鈥淭he reality is that when Congress passed these laws,鈥� says Hartl, 鈥渢hey were designed to make the environment better.鈥�

Finally, Biden would have to start hiring like mad. Over the past four years, Trump鈥檚 EPA and Interior Department have hemorrhaged talent. The Bureau of Land Management moved most of its staff out of Washington, D.C., leading some 70% of that staff to resign, and the EPA is nearly as small as it was during the Nixon era, when the EPA was founded. 鈥淭hat pattern, in the most extreme way, is mirrored throughout the environmental agencies,鈥� says Wetzler. 鈥淭here鈥檚 been a real brain drain of people who can鈥檛 stand in an agency and support the agenda under the Trump administration, and we鈥檒l have to put back the pieces of very demoralized, and in some cases broken agencies.鈥�

But from those ashes, Biden could build a coalition of climate advocates across his Cabinet. His transition team, and the 4,000 people they appoint, . 鈥淧ersonnel is policy,鈥� says Jamal Raad, co-founder and campaign director for Evergreen Action, founded by former staffers of Gov. Jay Inslee鈥檚 presidential campaign. 鈥淲e need to choose regulators that have a climate lens,鈥� and that lens doesn鈥檛 end at the EPA鈥攊t can reach the Department of Agriculture, where we have to reimagine our food production to work with our changing climate, or the Treasury, where regulators could interpret the Dodd-Frank consumer protection act to include climate risks. And within the White House, Raad says, Biden could create a National Climate Council that鈥檚 equivalent to the National Economic Council. 鈥淭here needs to be a plan to reorient the federal government so that climate is a lens in all decision making.鈥�

Heading into the general election, pressure from the left wing of the party shaped Biden鈥檚 $2 trillion climate plan, which is 鈥渁 green new deal in all but name,鈥� . 鈥淚t鈥檚 the most progressive, forward-leaning environmental plan that any candidate for president has ever released,鈥� says Wetzler of the NRDC Action Fund. 鈥淚t would represent incredible progress.鈥� And while the Biden campaign hasn鈥檛 laid out a timetable for the plan, 鈥渢he Biden team has been signaling their prioritization of climate by making it central to their economic recovery plans,鈥� says Raad. 鈥淚 think that folks should be cautiously optimistic鈥攂ut vigilant鈥攐n the prospect of climate being a priority early in the first term.鈥�

Of course, this all hinges on what happens in November. And if Trump is reelected, his administration would have the chance to establish a legacy of more than just incompetence and squandered time. Four more years of Donald Trump being in charge of the environment could permanently alter the American landscape.

In some cases, it would give the Trump administration time to fight back against the legal challenges they face, leaning on courts that they鈥檝e stacked with anti-environmental judges. And damage could be done that will be near impossible to undo鈥攔ules can be changed, but mines can鈥檛 be unmined. The Trump administration has pursued the largest rollback of federally protected land in U.S. history. Bears Ears National Monument in Utah, for example, which Trump shrunk by 85% in 2017, is in the crosshairs of uranium developers. Trump鈥檚 move has been mired in lawsuits, but a second term could give them the time to untangle them, and hand the land over to the uranium lobbyists.

Likewise, drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge was just approved in August, leaving little time for leasing, let alone actual development, before Inauguration Day. But if Trump wins, those leases are likely to move forward, as will the roads, pipelines, and oil rigs that come with them, doing permanent damage to a vital and fragile ecosystem. 鈥淥ver time you鈥檙e looking at millions and millions of acres of fossil fuel leasing,鈥� says Hartl from the Center for Biological Diversity Action Fund. 鈥淎nd eventually, once you get to the point where they鈥檙e actually putting drills in the ground, it鈥檚 very hard to undo that. You鈥檙e locking in a tremendous amount of fossil fuel infrastructure.鈥�

Trump鈥檚 influence on the Supreme Court looms heavily for the environment as well. With Trump already raring to appoint a new justice to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a second term is likely to offer him a fourth Supreme Court appointment, which would mean the highest court would house seven Republican-appointed justices. When you鈥檙e suing over environmental issues, the court鈥檚 makeup can be the difference between having your day in court and not. 鈥淔or example, there鈥檚 a general judicial doctrine called 鈥榮tanding,鈥� or your ability to go to court to pursue your aggrieved interests,鈥� explains Hartl. 鈥淐onservative judges want to narrow who has standing as much as possible, because that limits access to the courts. When you鈥檙e fighting for the environment, and your interest is protecting an endangered species or the atmosphere or the water, they鈥檝e already made it hard for us to go to court, to have standing. And they can narrow it even further so that we don鈥檛 even have recourse. Our ability to just fight for the environment is at stake.鈥�

The climate movement has never been more clear on what it is fighting for and what it needs to do, and finally has a presidential candidate who is signaling some willingness to do it. The prescription is fairly simple: Stop burning fossil fuels so we can begin drawing down the carbon in the atmosphere that鈥檚 overheating our planet and disrupting the systems that have supported life on Earth as we know it. The president has a lot of power to take that action, and we have no time to lose. 鈥淚t鈥檚 true that we have 30 years [before an irreversible climate collapse], but when you act on that 30-year scale really affects how radically you have to act,鈥� says Wetzler. 鈥淚f you think about where the United States was at the beginning of the Trump administration鈥攁nd where the world was, in terms of taking climate change seriously鈥攊t鈥檚 a huge, squandered opportunity.鈥� This November, we can choose to act, and set ourselves back on course. 鈥淚f this is a one-time, black swan event, we鈥檙e probably going to recover as a nation,鈥� says Doniger. 鈥淭his is the project of the century.鈥�

This story originally appeared in and is republished here as part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story.

Andy Kroll contributed reporting to this story.